"Even if Jefferson Davis abolished slavery, the Union would have invaded the South"

Someone said, "Even if the South got rid of slavery, Lincoln's forces would have invaded the South."

Where This Comes Up

If a discussion turns to whether or not the Union cared about abolition, some people suggest this as a thought experiment.

When This Started

I have only seen this in online arguments, but I have seen it in a lot of them. If you know the real world origins of this, let me know.

What Part is True

If the CSA seceded, with or without slavery, the Union was going to try to stop it. Lincoln took the United part of United States pretty seriously.

Why It's Complicated

• The South seceded over slavery. 
• If slavery were not an issue, the South would have not have seceded.
• The laws Confederates claimed were not being enforced in the North or were being infringed upon in the South virtually all pertained to slavery.
• Sources that insist secession was to maintain state institutions were referring to the institution of slavery.

Who Talked About It

"These ends it endeavored to accomplish by a Federal Government, in which each State was recognized as an equal, and had separate control over its own institutions. The right of property in slaves was recognized by giving to free persons distinct political rights, by giving them the right to represent, and burthening them with direct taxes for three-fifths of their slaves; by authorizing the importation of slaves for twenty years; and by stipulating for the rendition of fugitives from labor."

"We affirm that these ends for which this Government was instituted have been defeated, and the Government itself has been made destructive of them by the action of the non-slaveholding States. Those States have assume the right of deciding upon the propriety of our domestic institutions; and have denied the rights of property established in fifteen of the States and recognized by the Constitution; they have denounced as sinful the institution of slavery; they have permitted open establishment among them of societies, whose avowed object is to disturb the peace and to eloign the property of the citizens of other States. They have encouraged and assisted thousands of our slaves to leave their homes; and those who remain, have been incited by emissaries, books and pictures to servile insurrection."

South Carolina Ordinance of Secession, adopted 24 December 1860

"The people of Georgia having dissolved their political connection with the Government of the United States of America, present to their confederates and the world the causes which have led to the separation. For the last ten years we have had numerous and serious causes of complaint against our non-slave-holding confederate States with reference to the subject of African slavery."

Georgia Ordinance of Secession, approved 29 January 1861